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Annual Yearbook: Recommended MF's I Nifty, Gold, Fixed Income and Crypto Strategies
Weekly Insights and Impact
GoalTeller Research Team
January 05, 2025
Hi Everyone.
Wishing you all a Happy 2025
This edition we will share with you our Annual Year Book that encompasses our summary for 2024 and expectations for this year, some of our best reads, our own performance, and finally strategy of how investors should play the markets, sectors, and spaces we like/dislike.
• Global indices continued to roar with Nifty higher by around 10%, Nifty 500 at around 14% while mid and small-cap indices at around 24%.
• The Nasdaq did very well on the back of AI-driven themes, Tesla later on, and quantum computing rising by 35% while the Dow Jone was up by 14% and China was up by a meagre 9%.
• During the year the Japanese interest rates went positive for the first time in 17 years changing global trade dynamics.
• AI was the biggest buzzword during 2024 with quantum computing poised to be potentially the one for 2025.
• Indian IPO frenzy was at all-time highs in India, especially in the SME segments.
• Microfinance stocks did very poorly on the back of rise in NPA’s and some fancied large-cap stocks like Asian Paints, Nestle and even Reliance doing poorly. On the other hand tech, pharma, energy, etc did well and so did some new-age stocks like Zomato (with ones like Paytm bouncing back from their lows).
• It was also the year of alternate currencies with Gold rising up around 24% while Crypto (Bitcoin surging by 129%).
• Worries of Trump’s trade policies the INR depreciated to now touching almost 86 levels now.
• We have given a 25% exit call on Nasdaq (for the holdings > 2 years) as we believe a lot of positives are being priced in here and room for error is low. Our call has made a good 100% return over 2 years and we feel apt to take some gains off.
• The next few months we remain cautious with how the new US presidency plays out.
• AI and Big Tech are in our view a little overdone with some pause/corrections while the long-term story in both remains intact.
• Our outlook of 30k on the Nifty stays which we feel could be attained over the next 12-15 months.
• Global geopolitical tensions could ease spurring the rise while we believe Trump’s words are erratic while his actions are much more thought hence some of the trade war concerns might not be as worse as anticipated.
• Gold seems poised to cross 1 lakh levels over the next 12–15 months and despite specific small and mid-caps that will continue to do well, the large-cap space continues to look very attractive on a risk-adjusted basis.
• We are not so positive on Indian tech companies as the valuations are now at the higher end and are a tad expensive considering the growth (We don’t see a major fall but the big pop that was anticipated last year is we feel behind us now).
Hits
• We were one of the only few financial services firms that predicted a 20k on the Nifty in Oct 2022 which we achieved within the time target.
• Further last year we had predicted a best-case scenario for the Nifty at 26k which again we had bang on during 2024.
• Gold is something we have been recommending since 42,000 levels, again a call that has gone very well.
• In terms of fund recommendations Parag Parikh continues to do very well and especially in the context of their very low volatility (< 14% Vs > 16% -18% for its peers).
• Nasdaq and big tech has again been a big win for us both in 2023 and 2024.
• Our call on tech, pharma, and Momentum as a factor played out very well in 2024.
Misses
• We had anticipated large caps to do very well in 2024 which did not turn out exactly the way we envisaged.
• Expectations of corrections in mid and small caps, once again was something which did not really play out the way we would have liked to.
1. Equities (Hold good for the next 3 months i.e. March 2025)
A.) Nifty above 25.5k
One can book gains and rebalance their portfolios back to normal eq levels
B) Nifty between 24.5k – 25.5k levels
Hold
C) Nifty between 23k – 24.5 k levels
Keep nibbling and staggering as this is a perfect zone for a time-based correction
D) Nifty Below 23k levels
One can invest lump sum moneys i.e. 10% of the cash levels at every 5% dip.
Gold
• Continue to hold. One can look at buying/ adding >75 levels. Pl remember that Gold Funds/ETF taxation is beneficial only post 1st April 2025 and before that SGB’s are still the best option despite higher premia and low liquidity.
Crypto
• If at all one needs to buy we would suggest asset classes that benefit from Crypto gains like Crypto exchanges through global investments in LRS – crypto if at all has to be bought with a high-risk high return view in mind.
Fixed Income
• There should be some slide in yields considering the low growth numbers, however the pace of decline we believe might not be as rapid as expected by many others. We believe the 10-year Govt Bond could at best case go down to around 6.25% in the coming year.
Investors can look at
1. Short–Medium Term Debt Funds (However might not be a wise idea for high tax bracket individuals due to the marginal tax slab). For such investors do consider debt fund FOF’s that invest into arbitrage etc that can give a LTCG tax if held for >2 years.
2. Arbitrage Funds continue to be a good alternative from a post-tax perspective.
3. On corporate bonds one needs to be quite discerning, however good quality NBFC’s continue to offer good risk-adjusted returns.
